Thursday, July 16, 2009

We've moved

The Global Analyst blog can now be found at www.globalanalyst.wordpress.com

Monday, April 20, 2009

Daily Update

Anti-government protests in Madagascar incite violence

Rival of ANC leader Zuma promises to reopen corruption case if elected

Waterboarding used 266 times on terror suspects by CIA

South Korea agrees to enter talks with North Korea

Mandela endorses Zuma and the ANC

Tamil Tigers breach no-fire zone, thousands flee

China targets consumers in balancing economy

Zimbabwe central bank raids private accounts to prop-up ministry

Somali pirates release cargo ship after ransom is paid

Citizens living in fear under military regime in Fiji

Monday, April 6, 2009

Daily Update

Charges against South Africa's ANC leader Jacob Zuma have been dropped

Calls for a cease-fire are ignored in Sri Lanka, where fighting continues

An devastating earthquake occurs in Italy

Big farms to save Africa?

No agreement on North Korea has been reached after an emergency UN Security Council meeting was called to discuss their recent rocket launch

With North Korea's recent rocket launch, people ask: is nuclear disarmament possible? Is it even desirable?

Japan announces new stimulus package

...and so does Russia, as described by Putin

One of the world's busiest shipping lanes continues to be threatened by Somali pirates as they seize even more ships

Zimbabwe's new coalition government aims to stabilize its relationship with the West

Sunday, April 5, 2009

Weekly Events Update

Monday, April 6th

@ The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 

The 3/11 Madrid Bombings: An Assessment after 5 Years 
Monday, April 06 2009, 12:00 p.m. - 1:30 p.m. 
with Fernando Reinares, Professor of Political Science and Security Studies, King Juan Carlos University, Madrid and and Director of the Program on Global Terrorism, Elcano Royal Institute, Madrid 
Read More | 

 North Korean Attitudes Toward China: A Historical View of Contemporary Difficulties 
Monday, April 06 2009, 2:30 p.m. - 4:30 p.m. 
Jin Linbo, The Brookings Institution, John S. Park, United States Institute of Peace, James F. Person, the Woodrow Wilson Center's North Korea International Documentation Project, Amb. J. Stapleton Roy, the Wilson Center's Kissinger Institute on China and the United States, Bernd Schaefer, the Wilson Center's Cold War International History Project, Amb. Richard Solomon, United States Institute of Peace 
Read More | 


Tuesday, April 7th

@ The Wilson Center 

Ukraine, Dealing with the Financial Crisis 
Tuesday, April 07 2009, 3:30 p.m. - 5:30 p.m. 
Edilberto Segura, Partner and Chief Economist, SigmaBleyzer/The Bleyzer Foundation 
Read More | 


Wednesday, April 8th 

@ The Center for National Policy (CNP)

Economic Crisis: Impact on Chinese Military Modernization 

Jacqueline Newmyer
Long Term Strategy Group

12:00 noon - 1:30 pm 

Center for National Policy
 
One Massachusetts Avenue, NW
 
3rd Floor, Suite 333
 
Washington, DC 20001
 


@ The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

THE INFORMATIONAL CHALLENGES OF A CHANGING CLIMATE 

•   Current national and international adaptation efforts and challenges 
•    The national and international security implications of climate change 
•    The informational needs to implement mitigation policy 
•    Risk management for climate change 

Keynote Speaker:
The Honorable John W. Warner
Former U.S. Senator from Virginia 

http://www.csis.org/component/option,com_csis_events/task,view/id,1980/

10:00 - 11:30 AM, B1 Conference Room 


Wednesday, April 1, 2009

News from G-20: Working Hard, or Hardly Working?

Development at the G-20 Leader's Summit:

U.S., U.K., and Japan call for immediate economic and fiscal stimulus to jumpstart the world economy, while European nations are less bullish, calling for tougher regulation of banks, financial markets, and potential sanctions on tax havens 

France and China seek to mend bilateral ties through high level envoys after 

China's Hu Jintao says China's $585  billion domestic stimulus package "is working" - seeks stabilization and regulation of world financial markets - led by other G-20 states, of course

See for yourself on http://www.g20.org/ !

In other news:

U.S. - Russia rekindle the joy of nuclear disarmament as Obama and Medvedev meet 

Saudi Arabia hosts Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir, who faces an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court; Bashir is conducting a minor religious pilgrimage to Jeddah and Mecca 

Army Man: Gen. Petraeus requests for an additional 10,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan for 2010; says Israel could launch a pre-emptive strike on Iran's nuclear program 

Protests continue to rock Thailand, stalling government economic stimulus packages 

Sunday, March 29, 2009

Weekly Events Update

Monday, March 30th

@ The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

Water and Agriculture Implications for Development and Growth
March 30, 2009 The conference will convene international leaders—from government, the private sector, nongovernmental organizations, and academia—to share their expertise in realms of water, agriculture and global development. Discussions will focus on the impact of these global resource trends on smallholder farmers, assessing strategies to increase both financial incomes and health outcomes in an effort to reduce poverty and improve smallholder farmer livelihood. Ultimately, the event will build awareness about agricultural and water issues, suggest key research initiatives relevant to future policy, and contribute to the ongoing debate about the nature and structure of U.S. development policy and U.S. international water policy.

9:30 am - 4:00 pm (Conference)

Rajeev Venkayya: Global Health Delivery Systems
March 30, 2009 The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Global Health Policy Center cordially invites you to hear Dr. Rajeev Venkayya, Director for Global Health Delivery at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. He will concentrate his presentation on strategies for improving the delivery of essential health technologies and services in developing countries.

10:00 am - 11:30 am

Tuesday, March 31st

@ The Wilson Center

Can the G-20 Save the World Economy from Deeper Crisis and Protectionism?
March 31, 2009 As President Obama and world leaders travel to the April 2nd London Summit on the global economic crisis, CSIS’s Scholl Chair in International Business Steven Schrage invites you to a roundtable discussion examining the potential impact of the G-20 on critical issues facing the global economy.

1:00 pm - 2:00 pm, B1

@ CSIS

Islam(s) in Post-Soviet Eurasia: One or Many?
John Schoeberlein, Lecturer on Central Asia, Department of Near Eastern Languages and Civilizations, Harvard University. Read More

12:00 p.m. - 1:00 p.m., 6th floor conference room

Wednesday, April 1st 

@ The Center for Eurasian, Russian, and East European Studies, Georgetown University 

The Future of NATO
  
a discussion with 
  
His Excellency
José María Aznar 
Distinguished Scholar in the Practice of Global Leadership, Georgetown University
President of the Government of Spain (1996-2004) 

and

The Honorable
John R. Bolton
United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2005-2006)

and

Mr. Fred Kempe
President and Chief Executive Officer, The Atlantic Council

moderated by   
  
Dr. Angela Stent
Professor of Government and Foreign Service and 
Director of the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies 
in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University

10:30 AM @ the Intercultural Center Auditorium

Thursday, April 2nd - Friday, April 3rd 

CCAS 2009 Annual Symposium: 
Palestine and the Palestinians Today

Held at: 
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
1779 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036


Day 1, April 2, 2009

·  Changing Conceptions of Palestinian Nationalism

·  Politics and Leadership: The Changing Trajectory of Governance and Resistance

·  Economics and Development in Palestine

·  Human Rights and the Rule of Law

A reception for all conference speakers and guests will immediately follow the conclusion of Day 1 of the conference.


RSVP for Day 1 here

Day 2, April 3, 2009

·  Local Institutions and Issues: Health, Water and Culture

·  Palestinians and Israeli Policies

·  U.S. Policy Toward Palestine and Palestinians

·  Political Solutions for Palestine/Israel

RSVP for Day 2 here



Thursday, March 26, 2009

Thursday Highlights

Don’t believe all the hype – despite the unavoidable frenzy over Secretary of the Treasury Time Geithner’s proposal for “comprehensive reform” that will come to smite the financial services industry in order to reduce systemic risk the reality may be less radical than what is being reported.

Your correspondent was there for the entirety of the hearing and the statements and questions between the Secretary and the members of House Financial Services Committee indicated much more moderation, caution and consensus than the soundbites may indicate. Incidentally, the Dow closed 175 points higher. Lesson here: Don’t believe the news, believe in results.

Asia, but not as you know it (anymore)China is engaging in military development that is upsetting the delicate balance of power in Asia and this will lead to regional instability, a more assertive PRC and cause general uncertainty for all involved, according to a recent Pentagon report to Congress.

China has accused the Pentagon of “Cold War thinking”. And the dance of diplomacy continues.

Hating the world, one summit at a time – Big global summits are notorious for attracting all manner of anti-globalization protesters and have a long tradition of turning violent. In anticipation of “unprecedented” protests London police are taking extra precautions to control the situation. Hard to pick who to bet on.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Daily Update

Czech Government Collapses as Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek fails a vote of no-confidence - Czech Republic's 6-year EU Presidency in jeopardy: are the EU's efforts to curb the global recession in jeopardy too?

00-Punjab? U.S. intelligence suggests ties between Pakistani ISI spy service and Taliban - Taliban commanders planning major confrontation of international force in Afghanistan; roadside bomb kills 9

Our insatiable demand for illegal drugs fuels the drug trade” - U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, speaking about the drug war in Mexico

Georgian politics bipolarize as videos allegedly depicting opposition leaders encouraging violent demonstrations to drive the current government out of party

IMF will deny Zimbabwe financial assistance until the country enacts policy reforms and repays its outstanding debt to the Fund; Zimbabwe's humanitarian situation has deteriorated significantly since hyperinflation due to shortages of daily necessities combined with a cholera outbreak last August

PM Morgan Tsvangirai, left, and President Robert Mugabe seek funds for Zimbabwe.

PM Morgan Tsvangirai, left, and President Robert Mugabe

British PM Gordon Brown stung on fiscal stimulus while abroad

India reports 25 dead from fighting in Kashmir

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

It's Still the Economy, Mostly

Tuesday and Thursday – Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testified before the House Financial Services Committee on oversight issues with the bailout(s).

Also, mark your calendars. This coming Thursday, March 26, Secretary Geithner will be testifying again before the Financial Services Committee. This time he will be testifying on overhauling financial regulation. Particularly relevant in the lead up to the upcoming G-20 summit.

Here are the details for those of you who can make it:

Rayburn House Office Building, Room 2128
10:00am (but arrive at least half an hour early to get a seat in the public gallery of the hearing room).

Strange bedfellows in Israel: The leftist Labour party has voted to join the right-wing Likud party in a coalition that has split Labour but gives Likud much welcomed mainstream support from a major third party.

Outback steakhouse – Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is in town to meet with government officials and gave a variety of issues ranging from the financial crisis to strategy in Afghanistan. Since the Bush years the strategic importance of Australia has grown for the United States and both PM Rudd and President Obama will no doubt be keen to maintain the positive relationship.

Progressive Saudi Arabia? – In one of the most culturally conservative countries in the world a glimmer of hope for reform? Don’t hold your breathe but still an interesting story.

Monday, March 23, 2009

Daily Update

New Hutu attack sends Congolese into flight

Trade barriers increase globally

Nearly 100 Tibetan monks are arrested by Chinese police after attack on police station

Despite the current economic state of the world, India's rural market is seeing great expansion

In El Salvador, leftists are on the rise with the greatest opportunity they've seen in more than a decade

Madagascar's leader is sworn in

According to NATO, a high ranking Taliban leader is dead

Ties strengthened between Cuba, El Salvador and Costa Rica

The state of Sudan worsens with the expulsion of aid groups

Spain expected to withdraw troops from Kosovo

Friday, March 20, 2009

Daily Update


French protest against government economic policies, similar protests seen in other EU nations. While France's alleged protectionism of motor companies has highlighted broader economic tensions within the EU, Sarkozy has announced that France seeks a return to NATO military command 

Israel's holy war? IDF soldiers describe religious justification for entering Gaza

Afghanistan's religious council has called for King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia to mediate talks with the Taliban over reducing violence in the region  

Arab states meet to mend ties with Syria in preparation for Doha talks - former alarmed by Iran's influence in Iraq, Lebanon, and Gaza 

Greek vessel "Titan" seized by pirates off Somali coast


Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Daily Update


Madagascar's constitutional court upholds the rule of opposition leader Andry Rajoelina, but nations condemn the military coup that brought him to power 


U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates announces the end of the "stop-loss" policy by 2011

With the G-20 summit looming, France and Germany declare their intent not to incur debt with large stimulus packages for their own countries 

NATO calls for increased troop presence in Afghanistan during the country's summer elections 

The Vatican tries to defuse criticism over Pope Benedict XVI's comments on the role of condoms in preventing AIDS in Africa 

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Global Analyst - Issues 1 and 2


The Global Analyst is proud to present the first issues of Georgetown's only student-authored International Affairs Journal:

The Global Analyst. Volume 1, Issue 1. November, 2008 - "Changing China: Engaging China in the 21st Century."


The Global Analyst. Volume 2, Issue 2. March, 2009 - "Terror in Nigeria: The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta."


Friday, March 6, 2009

Daily Update

Clinton meets with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in Geneva for the first time since taking office - closer ties between U.S. and Russia are seen as a pragmatic move by U.S. administration

UN can't make up its mind about how to approach the Sudan crisis, but knows that further inaction will have "dire consequences"

Military coups rock Guinea-Bissau, threaten a return to "the bad old days" of African politics

"Illegal" Israeli actions in East Jerusalem: EU accuses Israel of "annexing East Jerusalem"

"Seoul, Canberra sign defense pact"

African Churches leading resistance against violence towards women in Africa

National Stats adviser: China has no need for second stimulus

Wife of Zimbabwe PM Tsvangirai dies in auto accident

Obama's gifts for British PM Gordon Brown: not up to snuff? Decide for yourself

Activist slimes UK Business Secretary with green custard - "The only thing green about Peter Mandelson is the slime coursing through his veins...that he is trying to make political capital out of climate change...is an insult to my generation"

Thursday, March 5, 2009

Daily Update


Covert Syrian nuclear reactor prompts scrutiny by IAEA, European, and U.S. observers - reactor is capable of generating fissile material appropriate for a plutonium bomb 

Sudan leader rejects calls by International Criminal Court to arrest him on war crime charges 

Cologne Archives collapse, a portion of Germany's "most valuable documentary treasures," including original manuscripts by Marx, Hegel, and medieval records buried beneath the rubble 

Car bomb kills 14 in Iraq

Eastern European Central Banks defend their financial stability 

Afghan elections rescheduled due to security concerns 

Roman Catholic Church in South Korea begins training North Korean bishops again for the first time in 40 years 





Sunday, March 1, 2009

Weekly Update - DC Events of Interest

@ Georgetown:

The Bilden Asian Security Speaker Series
presents

An American Strategy for Asia:
Prosperous, Peaceful, and Free
featuring
Daniel Blumenthal

Resident Fellow in Asian Studies
The American Enterprise Institute

Wednesday, March 4, 2009
4:00 pm - 5:15 pm
McGhee Library
301 Intercultural Center
Georgetown University
37th and O Streets, NW, Washington, DC

Please RSVP to http://www12.georgetown.edu/sfs/rsvp/cpass

@ The Center for Strategic and International Studies:

The Center for Strategic and International Studies
cordially invites you to attend

A conversation on U.S.-China relations
with
Dr. Wang Jisi
Dean of the School of International Studies, Peking University
and
Ambassador John D. Negroponte
Vice Chairman, McLarty Associates

Moderated by:
Bonnie Glaser
Senior Associate, CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies

Friday March 6 ~ 3:00 to 4:30 p.m.
CSIS, B-1 Level

Please RSVP by emailing your name and affiliation to Savina Rupani at
srupani@csis.org or at (202) 457-8719.

More events at CSIS: http://www.csis.org/events/

Monday, March 2, 2009, 2-4 pm, B-1 Level Conference Center

Please register by providing your full contact information to Nick Malouta at nmalouta@csis.org.

Tuesday, March 3, 2009, 9:30 am - 11:00 am, B-1 Level Conference Center

Thursday, March 5, 2009, 9:30 a.m. - 11:00 a.m., B-1 Level Conference Center

Please RSVP to the CSIS Africa Program at africa@csis.org to attend.

Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1800 K Street, NW, Washington DC, 20006

@ The Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars:

RSVP and More Information - http://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=events.welcome

China’s Green Revolution: Prioritizing Technologies to Achieve Energy and Environmental Sustainability
Monday, March 02 2009, 4:00 p.m. - 5:30 p.m.
Jonathan Woetzel, McKinsey & Company’s Shanghai office; Martin Joerss, McKinsey & Company’s Beijing office; Rob Bradley, World Resources Institute

Winning the Peace in Burundi and DR Congo
Wednesday, March 04 2009, 10:00 a.m. - 11:30 a.m.
Alain Pekar Lempereur, Professor, ESSEC Business School, Paris; Elizabeth McClintock, Managing Partner, CMPartners; Steve McDonald, Consulting Program Director, Africa Program (moderator)

Transnational Integration Regimes as Development Programs
Wednesday, March 04 2009, 12:00 p.m. - 1:00 p.m.
Gerald A. McDermott, Associate Professor, Sonoco International Business Department, Moore School of Business, University of South Carolina

Global Health Spending: Why Maternal Health Is Not a Political Priority
Wednesday, March 04 2009, 12:00 p.m. - 2:00 p.m.
Jeremy Shiffman, Associate Professor of Public Administration, The Campbell Public Affairs Institute Maxwell School, Syracuse University; Ann M. Starrs, President, Family Care International

Protection of the Mediterranean Ecosystem
Wednesday, March 04 2009, 2:00 p.m. - 3:30 p.m.
Spyridon Kouvelis, Member of Parliament, Greece, and in charge of the Environment Sector, Policy Coordination Body, PanHellenic Socialist Movement

China's Carbon Cost Abatement Curve: What it Means for U.S. Climate Policy
Wednesday, March 04 2009, 3:00 p.m. - 4:30 p.m.
with Jonathan Woetzel, Director, McKinsey & Company Shanghai Office; and David Moulton, Director, Climate Policy and Conservation Funding, The Wilderness Society. Moderated by: Jennifer Turner, Director, China Environment Forum, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

Saturday, February 28, 2009

Daily Update

ASEAN states decide what to do with the Rohingya refugees of Burma

Japan's recession could be the most severe of all: unemployment skyrocketing, exports plummeting, factories shutting down

European leaders meet in summit to discuss economic crisis in Europe in an effort to determine which powerful nations will aid those struggling the most. Meanwhile, tensions continue to grow between Czech President Topolanek and French President Sarkozy

Contrary to US allegations of disrespect, China defends its actions regarding human rights

Israel still cannot reach coalition agreement as April 3rd deadline quickly approaches, worrying Netanyahu

Iran's quest for hegemony

Rwandan soldiers begin to move out of the DR Congo after entering to attack Hutu rebels

Zuma, the possible next president of South Africa, remains unaffected by opposition party, Cope, despite its mounting strength and his own corruption charges

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Daily Update

Mutiny by Bangladesh paramilitary boarder guards for higher wages leaves 50 dead; mutineers accepted government amnesty and laid down their arms

Pakistani opposition leader Nawaz Sharif is ousted from office, threatening to plunge nation into chaos again just as the government tries to muster a response to Islamic Extremism

Iran's nuclear program "gains speed" as Russo-Iranian collaboration on the Bushehr light water reactor intensifies - by itself, the reactor doesn't pose a significant nuclear proliferation risk, but it could be targeted by Israeli air strikes against Iran's nuclear infrastructure as a whole

According to South Korean intelligence, North Korea has relocated preparations for the launch of its Taepodong-2 intercontinental ballistic missile to an underground refueling station, making it more difficult for the U.S. and its allies to determine when the launch will occur

India files murder charges against one of the Mumbai gunmen, death sentence expected

U.S. Attorney General commends Guantanamo's facilities, "professionalism," and care for inmates, but maintains that the prison's days are numbered

Afghanistan is so far removed from global financial and trading markets that it's weathering the current financial crisis with little difficulty - the U.S.'s backing of the Afghan Central Bank to keep its currency stable helps, too

U.S. State Dept. criticizes China, Russia, North Korea, and others on 2008 human rights record; China deems accusations "groundless"

Japan's recession is predicted to deepen as exports fall by more than 45%

Investigation of deadly Turkish Airlines crash in Amsterdam begins

Monday, February 23, 2009

Daily Update

Sudanese President Bashir may soon be arrested on charges of war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court

Tamil Tigers' offer to ceasefire is rejected by Sri Lanka, who says peace cannot be possible until rebels lay down arms

A reform-minded Saudi Arabia

Rivals meet in Madagascar to stop violence political and social unrest

North Korea recently finished deploying new medium-range missiles with expanded reach capabilities

Spain's People's Party falling apart from internal scandal and disunity?

Pakistan seeks support from China in order to achieve economic security

Human rights group Amnesty International urges an Israel-Hamas arms embargo

Sunday, February 22, 2009

Weekly Update - D.C. Events of Interest

Moday:

Iraq: Recent Events and Challenges Ahead

Monday, February 23, 2009, 02:00 PM - 03:00 PM

http://www.stimson.org/events.cfm?ID=662

@

The Henry L. Stimson Center

1111 19th Street, NW, 12th Floor
Washington, DC 20036


Facing the Global Economic Challenge

The Rt. Hon. Alex Salmond, MP, MSP (First Minister of Scotland)

Monday, February 23 , 11:15 a.m.
R.S.V.P. to PresidentsOffice@georgetown.edu

@

Riggs Library
Georgetown University, Washington D.C. 20057


Wednesday:

New Kids on the Block: Chinese Oil and Mining Companies Go Global

Wednesday, February 25 2009, 9:15 a.m. - 10:30 a.m.

http://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=events.event_summary&event_id=503259

@

The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

Ronald Reagan Building and
International Trade Center
One Woodrow Wilson Plaza
1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW
Washington, DC 20004-3027


Craig from Craigslist!

Craig Newmark, Creator of Craigslist

Wednesday, February 25th, 7:00-9:00 pm (Doors open at 6:30)

@

Gaston Hall,
Georgetown University, Washington D.C. 20057


Friday:

US - Iran: Lessons from the Past for the Present and Future

Friday, February 27 2009, 9:00 a.m. - 11:00 a.m.

http://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=events.event_summary&event_id=508598

@

The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

Saturday, February 21, 2009

Daily Update

Border between Morocco and Algeria temporarily opens to aid Gaza

Taliban agrees to ceasefire in Pakistan province

France promises millions in economic aid to its Caribbean territories in order to stop violent protests and social unrest

Tamil Tigers attack by aircraft, killing 2 and injuring 50

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton wants to see a stronger US-China relationship

No end in sight for Zimbabwe's strife: Bennett still jailed and refusing amnesty while the cholera epidemic worsens

Netanyahu to form Israel's next government

Thursday, February 19, 2009

How Far is China Willing to Go to Ensure its "Energy Security?"

China’s increasing appetite for foreign oil to fuel its rapid economic growth has prompted concern from external observers on the subversive potential of China’s bilateral equity oil agreements to established international norms of state or corporate-led oil procurement. It is claimed - especially from a U.S. policy perspective - that China’s modus operandi of establishing bilateral equity oil agreements with states widely considered unscrupulous by the international community (Sudan and Iran come to mind) is a clear indication of Beijing’s economically aggressive and norms-ignoring approach toward international politics.

But what critics of “Beijing’s equity oil policy” fail to realize is that China’s current “going abroad” policy originated from a market-based profit motives on the part of Chinese National Oil Companies (NOCs) during the late 1980s, as these firms (CNPC, Sinopec, and CNOOC) sought to maintain their continued profitability and enhance their international competitiveness by staking out oil reserves abroad. Surprisingly, the Chinese government did not initially support such an equity oil policy – but as the idea that equity oil agreements enhanced China’s energy security began to take root in academic and political circles, the state’s interest in supporting equity oil imports increased. The relation between equity oil and energy security thus began as an “accidental discovery" – not as one of Beijing’s strongly advocated security prerogatives.

The role of China’s NOCs as the originators of China’s current equity oil policy, when combined with the astounding influence exerted by these powerful oil conglomerates within China’s energy policy-making process, suggests that Beijing does not have as much control over the making of China’s equity oil policy to the degree that its critics have asserted. It remains to be seen whether arguments for continuing China's bilateral equity oil agreements in the name of energy security (and the continued profitability of China's NOCs) will continue to override international outrage and domestic skepticism about Beijing's diplomatic tact on this issue.

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Daily Update - Your World in Financial Crisis

The bigger they are, the harder they fall: Foreign Policy magazine makes it clear that Russia's heavy-handed foreign and domestic policies are proving disastrous for the nation throughout the financial crisis

Obama journeys north of the border to Canada to provide U.S. assurances on trade

Indonesia seeks currency swap deal with U.S., Japan, China, and South Korea to bolster its devaluing rupiah

Cocaine prices fall - Another indication of the global financial crisis? Not really: Drug smugglers are opening new smuggling routes to Europe through weak West African and Balkan states

Speaking of the narcotics trade, Ecuador expels second U.S. diplomat in spat over counter-narcotics training program

Also, Mexico's drug cartels now organize protests against the presence of government troops in Mexican border towns - protesters are offered food and money to block off border crossings

Slovenia and Croatia enter diplomatic contention - and a bit of "facebook war" - over border disagreement, putting Croatia's EU membership at risk

Real war will continue in Afghanistan, as U.S. Commander says 60,000 troops will be needed in Afghanistan during "tough" year of 2009

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Today begins the first trial of the former Khmer Rouge regime in Cambodia. After some thirty years the first trial is under way with Comrade Duch, as he is known, in the defendant's chair. Though evidently an important watershed moment for the Cambodian people in coming to grips with a traumatic past it still begs the question of whether, as Dr. Martin Luther King once said, justice delayed is really justice denied.

In response to recent tough talk by North Korea Secretary of State Clinton issues a warning. The trip is also notable in that it is the first time in some forty years a Secretary of State has made his or her first overseas trip to Asia rather than Europe.

Things could hardly be worse in Japan. The Finance Minister has resigned after appearing to drunk at a news conference at a G-7 conference. Now new economic data is out that Japan's export dependent economy is shrinking so fast it's suffering from whiplash. As goes Japan so goes the world?


From the land of false dawns comes another potential heartbreaker. After Qatari brokered talks the main rebel group in Darfur has signed an accord with the Sudanese government. Whether this will end the residual but noteworthy violence in the region is about as certain as the outcome of Israel's recent election. If we're looking for false dawns in the region look no further than the UN-AU peacekeeping force. Authorized a year ago and at half the strength a year later. The international community has let Darfur down to a large extent. Is it realistic to hope its own leaders can chart a different course?

Monday, February 16, 2009

Daily Update

Peace may finally be on its way to Darfur after Sudan and the region's most active rebel group reach tentative agreement

Venezuelan President Chavez wins and limits to term removed, allowing him to continue his rule indefinitely

Four of Russia's regional governors are replaced by President Medvedev due to concerns about social unrest

Bosnia, along with other Balkan states, faces many obstacles that prevent it from a secure future as a potential EU member state

China worries about possibly damaging protectionist actions

British and French submarines collide in Atlantic

Japan's economy enters an even deeper slump

Islamic law to be component of peace deal between Pakistan and Taliban-linked group

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Daily Update

Venezuela votes on whether or not Chavez will continue to serve as president

Sri Lanka grapples with what to do with displaced Tamil refugees

Israel refuses to agree to Gaza ceasefire until captured soldier is released

Rebuilding Haiti: More difficult than the UN thought

US heading towards a more favorable relationship with Russia

Treason charges against Zimbabwean opposition politician have been dropped, and replaced with new charge of conspiring to acquire arms with a view to disrupting essential service. The road ahead will surely be anything but smooth.

Bolivians question whether or not country is better off under indigenous President Morales

An economic stimulus plan is approved in Australia, despite having been blocked during an earlier vote.

Saturday, February 14, 2009

Daily Update

U.S. Missile Shield plans in Poland could "slow down" if Russia is willing to help exert pressure on Iran over its nuclear program

A Russian warship detains 10 more pirates off the coast of Somalia, but pirates previously detained by the U.S. Navy may never see trial

Article from Reuters compares Russian and U.S.-Coalition experiences in Afghanistan - neither seem capable of bringing stability to the nation with force alone

U.S. Secretary of State Clinton seeks to build a broader diplomatic relationship with China on her first trip since entering office - Clinton will visit Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, and China, and plans to discuss issues of human rights and climate change with the Chinese government

Dubai's economy enters a downward spiral as foreign workers, 90 percent of the population, are leaving

U.S. drone aircraft kills 25 in Pakistan, including Al Qaeda and Taliban fighters who take refuge in Pakistan in between conducting attacks in Afghanistan

EU vote observer "forcefully expelled" from Venezuela after calling Chavez a dictator, just days before a referendum is to be held on relaxing presidential term limits

Zimbabwean opposition official is arrested by Mugabe's security forces on conspiracy charges, despite a power-sharing agreement between the opposition party and Mugabe

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Daily Update

Taliban-affiliated suicide bombers, armed gunmen attack government ministries in Kabul, killing 20 and injuring 57


The U.S. Congress is poised to pass a $789 billion stimulus plan for the American economy - the proposed plan would create 3.5 million jobs - Dow rises in response

Mirek Topolanek, Prime Minister of the Czech Republic and current reigning President of the European Union, is scheduled to visit Central Asian states on the topic of opening new natural gas pipelines in the region, bypassing Russian pipelines, to the effect of maintaining energy security even if gas pipelines are shut down again by Russia due to political disputes.

Australian wildfires may have been started by arsonists, as a search for suspects continues in hard-hit Victoria county. Queen Elizabeth II has made a personal donation to the Victorian Bushfire Fund, which has raised more than £14 million

The new multi-national surface patrol force maintaining security in the Gulf of Aden has made its first arrest of 7 suspected Somali pirates

Indonesia issues tsunami warning after 7.0 quake rattles waters north of Sulawesi

France is prepared to sell fighter jets, frigates, and missile systems to Kuwait, in addition to fielding a military base there, in order to "maintain stability in the region."

Sarkozy also defends France's $7.9 billion state loan to French automakers Renault and Peugeot as "not protectionism" and in line with EU regulations, although the move underscores pressure throughout the EU on retaining local jobs for local workers during the economic crisis

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Yesterday and Today

The death toll for the fires in Australia breach have breached the 200 mark and may continue to rise as authorities discover more destruction in the wake of the fires. As always with the political response to natural disasters these days it seems highly vogue to use the opportunity to remind audiences of the linkage to climate change.

Israel has held their snap elections for a new government and according to preliminary news and polling the centrist Kadima party led by Foreign Minister Livni is doing better than expected. Which is to say not losing. As predicted ultra-dark horse Lieberman will come in third to the chagrin of Labor. Likud despite potentially coming in second argues that the rightist parties collectively form a majority which will then morph into a government.

A 'watch this space' story developing is that China is submitting its human rights record to the UN for examination.

Iran is keen on talks with the US. The new administration will need to deal with some pressing sticking points.

As a sign of the changing times and fortunes in Iraq even France is getting involved. Sarkozy who for so long has danced around the Iraq issue is in Iraq pledging economic assistance.

Daily Update

Financial Crisis: US reveals 1.5 trillion bank bail-out plan

Civilians from Uganda to the Central African Republic continue to suffer from acts of terror committed by the LRA, which have been going on for 20 years. Forces from Uganda, South Sudan and DR Congo remain on the offensive, but will the LRA ever agree to peace?

Election watch: Leveled polls in Israel, where 20% are still undecided

Iran ready for "respectful" talks with the US

Millions of migrant workers face increasing hardship as a result of Russia's economic decline

Detained and tortured, opposition activists are yet to be released by ZImbabwe's President Mugabe despite agreement

Red Cross evacuates 240 Sri Lankans trying to escape fighting

Monday, February 9, 2009

The RMB and the USA


Brad Setser responds to Greg Mankiw's article on the Chinese currency situation:

China cannot subsidize its exports without also subsidizing US consumption of Chinese goods – and US borrowing. Of course, some in the US are on the losing end of the “low-priced Chinese goods for high-priced US government bond” trade – and those losses aren’t equally distributed. Some parts of the country tend to produce more goods than compete with Chinese goods than others. But the US as a whole benefits from China’s willingness to subsidize US borrowing … and the purchase of China’s goods.

Call me skeptical.

But Setser's conclusion: we can give credit to China for allowing the RMB to appreciate, but still talk to them about continuing to move in the right direction. Hot headed rhetoric is the last thing the US economy needs at this junction. A "Schumer - Graham" -like China tarriff could be the start of major trade war.

Daily Update

Indecision and Apathy: New polls reflect Israel's mood regarding the election

President Obama continues campaigning for economic stimulus package

Russian President Medvedev is slowly beginning to establish an independent profile, distancing himself from Putin, the man in whose shadow he has always stood

During his recent tour of Mogadishu, Somalia's newly elected president extended an olive branch to Islamists in an effort to bring peace to the nation

A Sri Lankan suicide bomber kills 28 and injures dozens as Tamil Tiger rebels continue causing turmoil

Venezuelans campaign for limits to Chavez's term as tension mounts

Cultures clash in India as a new generation of women is stepping outside traditional social boundaries

Sunday, February 8, 2009

Daily Update

In Sri Lanka, more than 10,000 civilians have fled in the past few days from rebel-held Tamil-Tiger territory in the north, the government says.

Despite UN peacekeeping efforts, a massacre occurs in Congo

Death toll rises to 84 in Australian bushfires

Reconstruction of the Gaza Strip has yet to get off the ground, with political battles worrying aid workers that the work may never get done.

How to contain a nuclear Iran

Uprising to continue in Madagascar

Insecurity increases for jobless in Japan

Sarkozy defends his plans to revive France's economy

Political unrest occurs in Malaysia after chief minister forced out of office

Friday, February 6, 2009

Daily Update - Special Focus on Russian Diplomacy

- Poland is "ready" for America's missile defense shield, but the Russians remain wary, and appear to seek a detente with the U.S. and its new administration, especially by pursuing mutual nuclear disarmament. Russia has reported that it will deploy Iskandar short-ranged nuclear missiles in Kalingrad in response to an extension of the U.S. nuclear shield over Poland - the missile shield issue will be a focus at the Munich Security Conference this Saturday, where the U.S.'s policy of re-engaging European allies will be put to the test.

- Russian interest and influence in removing U.S. forces from Kyrgyzstan are noted in addition to Kyrgyzstan's own complaints. Russia has offered the U.S. an alternative supply route to Afghanistan through Russian territory, but the U.S. still needs an airforce base capable of deploying combat missions to Afghanistan

- Russian media ignores accusations by opposition leaders that Putin is "Russia's main economic problem" - the Russian stock exchange has fallen by 80% and the rouble has been devalued by 35% since last summer

- A.Q. Khan, Pakistani nuclear scientist who admitted selling nuclear secrets to Iran, Libya, and North Korea five years ago, has been released from house arrest. Khan's leading role in Pakistan's development of atomic weapons makes him immensely popular in Pakistan, and Pakistan has denied U.S. and IAEA inquiries into how Khan was able to evade international proliferation controls.

-U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon gives an interview to The Hindu on Pakistan, Terrorism, the Kashmir Issue, other Indian concerns